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02/04/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Blues have an All-Star goaltender who might not even be his club's starter come playoff time.
The Nashville Predators are likely to start a netminder this evening who is on the longest winning streak in club history.
That could make goals at a premium Saturday night in this big Central Division matchup between the Blues and Predators in Nashville.
St. Louis has posted a 9-1-2 record since a 3-0 loss in Detroit on Dec. 31 and sits fourth overall in the West, four back of the Red Wings for first place in both the division and conference. Nashville, winners in 13 of its past 16, is a point behind St. Louis.
The Blues recorded their NHL-leading 10th shutout of the season last night with a 1-0 win over the Kings, getting the fifth of the season from Jaroslav Halak to snap a two-game slide. The St. Louis netminder made 22 saves for his 21st career whitewash, getting all the support he would need at the 8:38 mark of the second on Jamie Langenbrunner's goal.
"You've got to get 100 points to make the playoffs and we knew that coming in," Langenbrunner said of the always-competitive Western Conference playoff picture. "If you win one you feel good about it and you move on. If you lose one you forget about it and move on. No one is going to win every game, but you've got to make sure you give yourself a chance every night."
Halak is 12-1-3 in his last 16 starts, posting a 1.57 goals-against average and .937 save percentage over that span. Four of his last seven starts have resulted in shutouts.
Still, Halak has made 28 starts to Brian Elliott's 22. The latter also has five shutouts this year and leads the NHL with a 1.69 GAA. The All-Star selection is second in the league with a .938 save percentage and it is unknown who will get the start tonight.
Nashville is likely to turn to Pekka Rinne, who is in the midst of a personal 10-game win streak. Rinne hasn't lost since Jan. 5 and has allowed two goals or less in all but one contest over his current win streak. He is also 13-1-0 with a 1.77 GAA and .941 save percentage since Dec. 28 and became the third goaltender since the start of the 2005-06 season to win more than 10 wins in a month after going 11-1-0 in January.
After giving up four goals in a 5-4 win at Minnesota on Tuesday, head coach Barry Trotz gave his No. 1 goalie a rest on Thursday and started backup Anders Lindback, who allowed three goals on 27 shots in a 4-1 defeat to hosting Philadelphia.
Ryan Suter had the lone Preds goal, his first since Nov. 23, while Craig Smith logged an assist to give him two goals and three helpers over a five-game point streak. Nashville, though, had a five-game win streak halted.
"Yeah, we haven't given him enough support in terms of offense," Trotz said of Lindback bearing the brunt of an offensive drought. "Sometimes that happens. He's had some good teams we've played him against in the [Eastern Conference]."
The Predators have won all three meetings with the Blues so far this season, including consecutive 2-1 shootout victories. Nashville has won nine of the last 13 encounters overall and four of the past six played at home.
<< Sabres hope to move past Islanders
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If the Buffalo Sabres want to get into the playoff mix,
they are going to have to beat teams like the New York Islanders. However,
that is not something they have been able to do on a consistent basis as of
late.
The Sabr
<< Sens aim to break out versus Maple Leafs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Ottawa Senators have matched their longest losing
streak of the season, but the Toronto Maple Leafs could play the role of
slump-buster this evening.
The Sens try to avoid a sixth defeat in a row as they take on a Mapl
<< Avalanche seek rare successful trip to Vancouver
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The sliding Colorado Avalanche will try to post a rare win
over the first-place Vancouver Canucks when the Northwest Division rivals meet
this afternoon at the Pepsi Center in Denver.
Colorado has lost four straight -- all
<< Ovechkin returns as Capitals visit Canadiens
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Ovechkin will try to help the Washington Capitals
avoid their first three-game slide in over two months, as the star forward
returns from suspension today to battle the Montreal Canadiens at the Bell
Centre.
Ovechkin
Sharks, Coyotes engage in the desert >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Jose Sharks aim to push their win streak to four
straight games this evening as they begin a tough stretch of road games with a
matchup against the Phoenix Coyotes.
The Sharks halted a three-game slide with a 1-0 w
Minus Howard, Red Wings visit healthy Oilers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Red Wings seem to finally be hitting their
stride on the road, but they'll be without the league's leader in wins for the
rest of their swing.
Minus goaltender Jimmy Howard, the Red Wings look for their third s
Bulls charge into D.C. to take on 14th-ranked Hoyas >>
Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the postseason rapidly approaching, a
pair of Big East Conference teams hoping to improve their prospects meet in
the nation's capital this morning, as the South Florida Bulls take on the
14th-ranked Geo
Ward, Hurricanes try to shut down Kings >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Carolina Hurricanes may be tied for the fewest points
in the Eastern Conference, but they showed again on Thursday that they can
still hang with the best the NHL has to offer.
Hoping to win two in a row for just the se
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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